Vladimir Putin’s praise of Donald Trump as “a very outstanding man, unquestionably talented” has been reciprocated by Trump’s calling Putin “a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond” that they “would get along very well.”
Trump has shrugged off warnings of Putin’s perfidy by citing lack of proof that Putin “kills journalists, political opponents and …invades countries.” Only the naïve would know there will be no such proof when the Kremlin controls prosecution, justice and the secret police. Putin’s hybrid warfare and its plausible deniability complicates proof of crimes against the international order, despite obvious Russian military engagement in Georgia and Ukraine.
(Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
Killing journalists and political opponents is only one reason for Trump to be leery of Putin. Trump should heed seven red flags when considering how to respond Putin’s flattery:
First, Trump must know that Putin ordered the hybrid war against Ukraine that has, according to conservative United Nations estimates, killed more than 9,000 and wounded nearly 21,000. Combatants and civilians are being killed daily despite a so-called truce brokered by Russia. More than one and a half million people have been displaced and almost four million are living under desperate circumstances.
Second, Trump must know that Putin has consistently declared the United States as enemy number one since his February 2007 speech in Munich. In Putin’s world, the United States and its NATO allies are intent on surrounding and dismembering Russia. Any aggressive actions of Russia – Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine – are therefore purely defensive in nature designed to protect Mother Russia from the world’s main source of evil. How will Trump “get along very well” with a negotiating partner, whose regime’s very existence requires that the U.S. play the role of Russia’s major enemy?
Third, Trump must heed the classic scholarly work of noted historian John Dunlop: “The Moscow Apartment Bombings of September 1999.” Dunlop uses the various commission and investigative reports that were prepared in that lost time of relative press and political freedom to present convincing evidence that Putin, the FSB (which Putin headed) and the Yeltsin regime deliberately blew up apartment buildings in three Russian cities, including Moscow. More than 300 were killed and 1,700 wounded. The bombings paved the way for the Second Chechen war, on the basis of which Putin was elected president in 2000. Prior to the bombings and the war, Putin had a minuscule favorability rating and stood little chance of being elected.
Fourth, Trump must note that Putin does not hesitate to lie publicly about important political matters, such as his April press conference statement that “there are no Russian troops in Ukraine.” (He backtracked this statement at his December press conference.) Putin lied that the March 2014 annexation of Crimea was a spontaneous act of the Crimean people; no Russian troops were involved. Only later did Putin publicly admit that he had ordered work on “returning Crimea” to begin at an all-night meeting on February 22. Russia’s armed annexation of Crimea was the first violation of the basic principle of secure sovereign boundaries on which the postwar international order is based.
Fifth, Trump must note that Russia is rated by the Committee to Protect Journalists in 7th place, just after Pakistan, as the most dangerous country for journalists. Iraq and Syria are at the top, and Russia is the only European country on the top list at 56 killed with motive confirmed since 1992. Only lower-level paid killers, if any, have been convicted. Russia with its armies of secret police, FSB agents and informants knows who is responsible. That Putin’s KGB state has not brought any of the guilty tells us that the Kremlin does not want these cases solved and is hence itself complicit.
Sixth, Trump must note that under Putin there have been at least eight political assassinations of national importance, not counting the murders of numerous regional and local politicians. The two most prominent murders were of opposition politician Boris Nemtsov (February 2015) and of ex-KGB agent and British citizen Alexander Litvinenko (November 2006). The investigation of Nemtsov’s murder is at the usual standstill. High-level suspects hiding in Chechnya have not been interrogated. Only low-level assassins will take the fall citing improbable Islamic-fundamentalist outrage. A London high court is currently hearing the Litvinenko case, which includes the polonium trail of the presumed assassins from and back to Russia. The London court has heard evidence of “a “prima facie case” of the culpability of the Russian state.” The two presumed assassins are safe in Russia; one has been granted parliamentary immunity. Of particular interest is the Russian March 2006 law which allows state assassination of those who threaten national security. The Russian secret service would not assassinate a UK citizen on British soil without permission from the highest levels.
Seventh, Trump should know that, as documented in Karen Dawisha’s book “Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?,” Putin and his inner circle have stolen a large portion of Russia’s wealth. Dawisha shows that Putin runs Russia as a criminal enterprise in which “the right to property is entirely conditional upon the property owner’s loyalty…” Putin’s own wealth will never be known, but it would likely place him among the wealthiest in Europe if not in the world. Russia’s top ten billionaires have a cumulated wealth of $125 billion. It is unlikely that their “boss” would be satisfied with less. Would Trump welcome the praise of national thieves like Marcos, Mobutu and Duvalier? I doubt it. Trump is proud he made his fortune. He did not steal it as did Putin.
A savvy negotiator must be able to size up his opponents and decide with whom to associate.
If Trump fails to dismiss Putin’s quasi-endorsement, he runs the risk of playing the dupe as did former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany (Putin’s stooge on Gazprom’s board), George W. Bush (looked into his soul), and Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton (Russian reset). Trump surely does not wish to join this group.
Source: Forbes
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